Demography and National Security: An Examination of Population Shifts in Israel

This paper examines how demography and population shifts influence state policy and group behavior within states. Conventional wisdom has it that in states where numbers matter, the prospect of population shifts among different identity groups, including religious ones, might lead to violence and civil war (Levy and Krebs 2001, Toft 2002, and Håvard and Urdal 2005). The logic could work one of two ways. Either waning majorities might launch a preventive war – either by passing legislation designed to prevent a rising minority from acquiring influence commensurate with its increasing numbers or by outright assault – or a rising minority might make redistributive demands, again ranging from increased access to offices, contracts, wealth, or even outright independence...<READ MORE>